Runaway Toad
61
Quality Score
Solid
Runaway Toad
Medium confidence
✍️ bumetric analysis
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Runaway Toad is an Android app from Shini Co. in the Arcade category, currently rated 4.3★ across 3,595 ratings. Initial signal reads as mixed reviews: supporters praise core features while critics cite stability and value gaps.
Quality Score is 61: Solid (established niche player). For a Arcade app, that means established niche player. The full BU Investment Matrix below scores 8 dimensions including monetisation, growth, and operational risk.
Track changes month-over-month in the Performance section below: live snapshot history and revenue forecast included.
💰 Monthly revenue · now vs forecast
● Right now
$5.0K
per month
→
12-mo forecast
$5.2K – $10.8K
per month
→
24-mo forecast
$6.4K – $19.2K
per month
MID tier
💡 Grow this revenue
Free AI audit of this app’s store listing
- Title & subtitle keyword fit
- Description hook & conversion structure
- Screenshots, ratings, reviews strategy
Typical impact: +2-5× organic installs
📊 Performance Tracking LIVE
Loading…
Rating
—
Reviews
—
Forecast Revenue / mo
—
Snapshots tracked
0
since first record
ONE-TIME · BUILD
💰 Estimated build cost
$175K
↳ What it cost to build · not monthly revenue
Likely range $130K – $235K
$25K · MVP floor
$100K · indie scale
$500K+ · studio build
📈
Slow ROI — current MRR is well below build cost
Synthetic estimate. Inputs: category complexity, file size, screen count, monetization layer, platform reach, age × team-size proxy. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-agency rate surveys. Full math + source list on /methodology.
Where the money goes
| 🧱 MVP baseline (design + 1-store ship) | +$28K |
| 📱 5 unique screens × $4.5K | +$22K |
| 💎 In-app purchase plumbing | +$9K |
| ⚙ Arcade complexity ×1.90 | +$53K |
| 🌐 Cross-platform reach (iOS + Android) | +$62K |
Total estimate
$175K
ONE-TIME · EXIT VALUE
💵 Estimated acquisition value
$15K
↳ What it would sell for · not monthly revenue
Marketplace range $10K – $20K · 22× MRR multiple
💸
~0.1× build cost (under-water)
Synthetic estimate. Multiple band derived from iap / freemium model + age, rating quality, category demand, and user-base maturity. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-app-marketplace closed-deal medians. Full math + comparable deal list on /methodology.
How the multiple was built
| 💎 IAP / freemium model base | 28× MRR |
| 🏷 Arcade category multiple | -20% |
Final multiple
22× MRR
👥 Estimated audience size
715K
Lifetime downloads (US-equivalent)
Monthly active
35K
Daily active
8.8K
Synthetic estimate from ratings × category benchmarks. Calibrated against 2024-2026 mobile-attribution retention + DAU/MAU reports. Numbers are US-storefront-equivalent — true global audience can be 5-10× larger for international apps. Full math + source list on /methodology.
How we sized it
| 📲 Arcade engagement | ~200 installs / rating |
| 🔁 Arcade D30 retention | 5% |
| 📍 DAU / MAU stickiness | 0.25 |
DAU / MAU
25% sticky
🛠 Estimated tech stack
🤖
Native Android (Kotlin)
Medium confidence · 55%
Also possible
Flutter
Heuristic guess from app bundle size, category, store description signals, and release-date stack era. Bumetric does not disassemble binaries — for binary-level certainty you would need an SDK intelligence tool or the manifest itself. Reasoning chain on the right. Full ruleset on /methodology.
Signals we read
| 🏷 Category context | Arcade |
| 📦 Tiny game bundle | → Native 2D engine |
🔬
How we forecast this revenue
MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBaseline
$5.0K/mo · ML-estimated from 234 triggers
Growth rate
+4.0% MoM · MID tier baseline (compound monthly)
6 months
$4.7K – $7.9K
12 months
$5.2K – $10.8K
24 months
$6.4K – $19.2K
Compound growth at +4.0% MoM (tier baseline for MID). Range widens with horizon — typical noise band ±25% at 6mo.. Ranges widen with horizon — distant futures carry more uncertainty.
📊
BU Investment Matrix
Building · 55/100MID TIERcompetitive build-outGrowth Velocity
5.0
Founder Strength
4.7
Product Quality
7.8
Revenue Strength
3.7
Monetization Maturity
5.0
Defensibility
8.0
Market Position
0.0
Operational Safety
10.0
- 💰 Revenue: Modest — $3K - $7K/mo · MID tier · medium confidence, trajectory unclear.
- ⭐ Quality: 4.33★ across 3,595 reviews — strong (top 10%).
- 📍 Market: Not yet charting in any of the 9 monitored markets.
- 📈 Growth: Insufficient signal to assess trajectory.
- ⚠️ Risk: Low — no material risk signals detected.
🎯 For competitors: Strong subscription moat. Hard to outcompete on retention. Better angle: free alternative with one-time purchase, or feature parity for an underserved sub-niche.
💵 For acquirers: Estimated asking range 18-32× monthly = $90K-$160K.
Composite of 8 dimensions computed deterministically from public signals — no LLM, every score traces back to a measurable input. Default weights shown; "compete" / "acquire" / "invest" lenses re-weight without re-fetching.
Range:
💰 Forecast Revenue / mo
MODELRevenue forecast computed from BU's 234 trigger model on each snapshot. Calibrated against ground-truth from 58 verified-revenue apps.
🔬Forecast Breakdown — Why This Estimate?Top 4 of 4 triggers
Our ML model uses 200+ signals from public data. These are the most influential for this app:
| Low install base (3,595 ratings)METRIC | +$1,500 | |
| Mature app (8y old)METRIC | +$1,500 | |
| Good rating (4.3★)METRIC | +$800 | |
| Ad-supported / freemiumMETRIC | +$600 |
METRIC = structural app data · REVIEW = mined from user reviews · ✓ VERIFIED = Stripe-verified anchor (TrustMRR)
📈 Reviews Growth
LIVECumulative review count from first BU snapshot. Each point = a tracked update.
⭐ Rating Trend
LIVEAverage rating evolution. Updates with each new review batch.
Profile & Insights
Everything we know — and don't — about this app and its company.
Identification
- App name
- Runaway Toad
- Developer
- Shini Co.
- Bundle ID
- com.SpikySnail.GrumpyFrog2
- App Store URL
- Open in App Store
- Category
- Arcade
- Content rating
- Not found
- Languages
- Not found
Company
- Website
- www.dancingmonkeystudio.com
- Tagline
- Not found
- Description
- Not found
- Founded
- Not found
- HQ / Address
- Not found
- Employees
- Not found
- Logo
- Not found
Revenue
- Verified revenue / mo
- Not found
- AI revenue estimate / mo
- Not found
- AI annual estimate
- Not found
- ML model estimate / mo
- $638/mo
- Top-grossing rank
- Not found
- All-time revenue
- Not found
- Pricing
- $0.99 - $4.99 per item
Founder
Founder data not yet collected for this app.
Funding
Funding data not yet collected for this app.
Press & Links
Press & Links data not yet collected for this app.
Contacts & Socials
Contacts & Socials data not yet collected for this app.
📈Ratings growth3,595 ratings+36% lifetimeShow 3-year history estimate ▾
Tracked (1 weeks) Pre-tracking estimate (36 weeks) · model-based, ±5% noise · anchored to release date and current value
Profile is built from iTunes Lookup + developer site scrape + ML revenue model. Empty fields show "Not found" — additional sources (Crunchbase, X, IndieHackers, Acquire.com) coming.
📝 About this app
It ain’t easy bein’ green! Tap, hold, and swipe to help Toad hop to safety in this gorgeous new action game.
Once upon a time there was a princess, in a tall castle, who kissed as many toads she could in order to find her Prince Charming. But Toad just wants to be a toad, not live in a castle (regardless of how tall it is). So Toad did the only thing that could be done: ESCAPE!
Rain or shine, day or night, this toad is ON THE RUN. Watch out for blimps, owls, and other hazards while you eat bugs, get new powers, explore the swamp, and search for secrets!… View full description on the official store →
Once upon a time there was a princess, in a tall castle, who kissed as many toads she could in order to find her Prince Charming. But Toad just wants to be a toad, not live in a castle (regardless of how tall it is). So Toad did the only thing that could be done: ESCAPE!
Rain or shine, day or night, this toad is ON THE RUN. Watch out for blimps, owls, and other hazards while you eat bugs, get new powers, explore the swamp, and search for secrets!… View full description on the official store →
App Specs
🔐 Own this app? Claim & verify MRR →🔖 v1.1853🔄 updated 0d ago📂 Arcade💰 Free📺 Ad-supported💎 IAP $0.99 - $4.99 per item
🔔
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📝 Description
95
BU Score · Transcendent
Full revenue analysis
Read the article-style breakdown for Runaway Toad: category rank, percentile, growth signal, comparable apps, and how the forecast is calibrated against verified-MRR anchors in this niche.
More by Shini Co.
View all →📦 Portfolio summaryINDIE studio
3apps·$992/mocombined
Lead-app heavy — top app contributes 64%
About this analysis
Why medium confidence: 3,595 ratings · no founder-verified revenue (model estimate only).
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
4 answers · auto-generated from this app's public dataHow much does Runaway Toad make per month?▴
Based on our ML-calibrated revenue forecast, Runaway Toad earns approximately $637/mo. This is a US-storefront-equivalent estimate; global revenue can be several times larger for internationally-distributed apps. See the methodology page for the full formula and confidence bands.
What apps are like Runaway Toad?▴
Browse the full Arcade category catalog to find similar apps with revenue, build cost, audience and tech stack data. Each /p/{slug} page also shows a Compare side-by-side widget with three peer apps from the same niche.
Who makes Runaway Toad?▴
Runaway Toad is published by Shini Co. on the Google Play Store. See the full publisher portfolio (other apps by the same developer) via the More by developer block on the product page above.
What is Runaway Toad's BU Score?▴
Runaway Toad has a BU Score of 61/100 (Solid). The score combines App Store rating, ratings count, monetization model and revenue signals calibrated against founder-verified MRR anchors. See the BU Score formula.