The White Bird Carnival
52
Quality Score
Solid
The White Bird Carnival
Low confidence
✍️ bumetric analysis
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The White Bird Carnival is an Android app from CottonGame in the Puzzle category, currently rated 3.8★ across 71 ratings. Initial signal reads as mostly critical sentiment so far: users flag rough edges and unmet expectations.
Quality Score is 52: Solid (established niche player). For a Puzzle app, that means established niche player. The full BU Investment Matrix below scores 8 dimensions including monetisation, growth, and operational risk.
Track changes month-over-month in the Performance section below: live snapshot history and revenue forecast included.
💰 Monthly revenue · now vs forecast
● Right now
$2.0K
per month
→
12-mo forecast
$1.7K – $6.3K
per month
→
24-mo forecast
$1.6K – $14.5K
per month
INDIE tier
💡 Grow this revenue
Free AI audit of this app’s store listing
- Title & subtitle keyword fit
- Description hook & conversion structure
- Screenshots, ratings, reviews strategy
Typical impact: +2-5× organic installs
📊 Performance Tracking LIVE
Loading…
Rating
—
Reviews
—
Forecast Revenue / mo
—
Snapshots tracked
0
since first record
ONE-TIME · BUILD
💰 Estimated build cost
$125K
↳ What it cost to build · not monthly revenue
Likely range $95K – $170K
$25K · MVP floor
$100K · indie scale
$500K+ · studio build
📈
Slow ROI — current MRR is well below build cost
Synthetic estimate. Inputs: category complexity, file size, screen count, monetization layer, platform reach, age × team-size proxy. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-agency rate surveys. Full math + source list on /methodology.
Where the money goes
| 🧱 MVP baseline (design + 1-store ship) | +$28K |
| 📱 5 unique screens × $4.5K | +$22K |
| ⚙ Puzzle complexity ×1.60 | +$30K |
| 🌐 Cross-platform reach (iOS + Android) | +$44K |
Total estimate
$125K
ONE-TIME · EXIT VALUE
💵 Estimated acquisition value
$20K
↳ What it would sell for · not monthly revenue
Marketplace range $15K – $30K · 11× MRR multiple
💸
~0.2× build cost (under-water)
Synthetic estimate. Multiple band derived from ad-supported + age, rating quality, category demand, and user-base maturity. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-app-marketplace closed-deal medians. Full math + comparable deal list on /methodology.
How the multiple was built
| 📺 Ad-supported base | 15× MRR |
| ⭐ ★ rating 3.5-4.0 (mixed) | -8% |
| 🏷 Puzzle category multiple | -12% |
| ⭐ Small user base (<1K ratings) | -8% |
Final multiple
11× MRR
🛠 Estimated tech stack
🤖
Native Android (Kotlin)
Medium confidence · 55%
Also possible
Flutter
Heuristic guess from app bundle size, category, store description signals, and release-date stack era. Bumetric does not disassemble binaries — for binary-level certainty you would need an SDK intelligence tool or the manifest itself. Reasoning chain on the right. Full ruleset on /methodology.
Signals we read
| 🏷 Category context | Puzzle |
| 📦 Tiny game bundle | → Native 2D engine |
🔬
How we forecast this revenue
MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBaseline
$2.0K/mo · ML-estimated from 234 triggers
Growth rate
+6.0% MoM · INDIE tier baseline (compound monthly)
Direction
Headwinds: rating drift may slow acquisition
6 months
$1.7K – $4.0K
12 months
$1.7K – $6.3K
24 months
$1.6K – $14.5K
Compound growth at +6.0% MoM (tier baseline for INDIE). Range widens with horizon — typical noise band ±40% at 6mo.. Ranges widen with horizon — distant futures carry more uncertainty.
📊
BU Investment Matrix
Early-stage solo · 45/100INDIE TIERexpected for tierRevenue Strength
3.3
Product Quality
3.1
Market Position
0.0
Growth Velocity
5.0
Defensibility
6.4
Operational Safety
10.0
Founder Strength
7.0
Monetization Maturity
1.0
- 💰 Revenue: Modest — $797 - $4982/mo · INDIE tier · medium confidence, trajectory unclear.
- ⭐ Quality: 3.82★ across 71 reviews — weak — significant quality concerns.
- 📍 Market: Not yet charting in any of the 9 monitored markets.
- 📈 Growth: Insufficient signal to assess trajectory.
- ⚠️ Risk: Low — no material risk signals detected.
🎯 For competitors: Mixed picture. Worth competing if you have a clear UX or pricing edge — otherwise crowded segment.
💵 For acquirers: Estimated asking range 18-32× monthly = $35K-$63K. Portfolio play ($29K/mo combined) commands premium.
Composite of 8 dimensions computed deterministically from public signals — no LLM, every score traces back to a measurable input. Default weights shown; "compete" / "acquire" / "invest" lenses re-weight without re-fetching.
Range:
💰 Forecast Revenue / mo
MODELRevenue forecast computed from BU's 234 trigger model on each snapshot. Calibrated against ground-truth from 58 verified-revenue apps.
🔬Forecast Breakdown — Why This Estimate?Top 3 of 3 triggers
Our ML model uses 200+ signals from public data. These are the most influential for this app:
| Paid app ($1.99)METRIC | +$2,800 | |
| Established app (5y old)METRIC | +$800 | |
| Pre-traction phase (71 ratings)METRIC | −$300 |
METRIC = structural app data · REVIEW = mined from user reviews · ✓ VERIFIED = Stripe-verified anchor (TrustMRR)
📈 Reviews Growth
LIVECumulative review count from first BU snapshot. Each point = a tracked update.
⭐ Rating Trend
LIVEAverage rating evolution. Updates with each new review batch.
Profile & Insights
Everything we know — and don't — about this app and its company.
Identification
- App name
- The White Bird Carnival
- Developer
- CottonGame
- Bundle ID
- com.cottongame.whiteBirdPark.googleplay
- App Store URL
- Open in App Store
- Category
- Puzzle
- Content rating
- Not found
- Languages
- Not found
Company
- Website
- www.cottongame.com
- Tagline
- Not found
- Description
- Not found
- Founded
- Not found
- HQ / Address
- Not found
- Employees
- Not found
- Logo
- Not found
Revenue
- Verified revenue / mo
- Not found
- AI revenue estimate / mo
- Not found
- AI annual estimate
- Not found
- ML model estimate / mo
- $2.0K/mo
- Top-grossing rank
- Not found
- All-time revenue
- Not found
- Pricing
- Not found
Founder
Founder data not yet collected for this app.
Funding
Funding data not yet collected for this app.
Press & Links
Press & Links data not yet collected for this app.
Contacts & Socials
Contacts & Socials data not yet collected for this app.
📈Ratings growth71 ratings+87% lifetimeShow 3-year history estimate ▾
Tracked (1 weeks) Pre-tracking estimate (37 weeks) · model-based, ±5% noise · anchored to release date and current value
Profile is built from iTunes Lookup + developer site scrape + ML revenue model. Empty fields show "Not found" — additional sources (Crunchbase, X, IndieHackers, Acquire.com) coming.
📝 About this app
You don’t read this story. It shakes, collides and tumbles… it tells itself as if alive.
Its intriguing interaction, beautiful art and animation will immerse you in a wonderful yet thrilling world.
David, the protagonist, receives a letter, and returns to the town which he hasn’t seen for ages. The once lively carnival is now deserted. Weird things happen during this nostalgia trip and old memories keep flashing back. He must find the truth.
With the story unveils itself piece by piece, will David hold the courage to face everything?… View full description on the official store →
Its intriguing interaction, beautiful art and animation will immerse you in a wonderful yet thrilling world.
David, the protagonist, receives a letter, and returns to the town which he hasn’t seen for ages. The once lively carnival is now deserted. Weird things happen during this nostalgia trip and old memories keep flashing back. He must find the truth.
With the story unveils itself piece by piece, will David hold the courage to face everything?… View full description on the official store →
App Specs
🔐 Own this app? Claim & verify MRR →🔖 v1.0.17🔄 updated 0d ago📂 Puzzle💰 Free
🔔
Track this app’s revenue
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📝 Description
95
BU Score · Transcendent
More by CottonGame
View all →📦 Portfolio summaryINDIE studio
8apps·$29K/mocombined
✓ Diversified — top app contributes 26%; risk spread across portfolio
About this analysis
Why low confidence: only 71 ratings · no founder-verified revenue (model estimate only) · revenue figure is directional only.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
4 answers · auto-generated from this app's public dataHow much does The White Bird Carnival make per month?▴
Based on our ML-calibrated revenue forecast, The White Bird Carnival earns approximately $2.0K/mo. This is a US-storefront-equivalent estimate; global revenue can be several times larger for internationally-distributed apps. See the methodology page for the full formula and confidence bands.
What apps are like The White Bird Carnival?▴
Browse the full Puzzle category catalog to find similar apps with revenue, build cost, audience and tech stack data. Each /p/{slug} page also shows a Compare side-by-side widget with three peer apps from the same niche.
Who makes The White Bird Carnival?▴
The White Bird Carnival is published by CottonGame on the Google Play Store. See the full publisher portfolio (other apps by the same developer) via the More by developer block on the product page above.
What is The White Bird Carnival's BU Score?▴
The White Bird Carnival has a BU Score of 52/100 (Solid). The score combines App Store rating, ratings count, monetization model and revenue signals calibrated against founder-verified MRR anchors. See the BU Score formula.