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Surface 12: Project Dawn

55
Quality Score
Solid

Surface 12: Project Dawn

Medium confidence
4.2 Google Play rating
✍️ Bumetric analysis
“

Surface 12: Project Dawn is an Android app from Elephant Games AR LLC in the Adventure category, currently rated 4.2★ across 332 ratings. Initial signal reads as mostly critical sentiment so far: users flag rough edges and unmet expectations.

Quality Score is 55: Solid (established niche player). For a Adventure app, that means established niche player. The full BU Investment Matrix below scores 8 dimensions including monetisation, growth, and operational risk.

Track changes month-over-month in the Performance section below: live snapshot history and revenue forecast included.

💰 Monthly revenue · now vs forecast
● Right now
$5.0K
per month
→
12-mo forecast
$5.2K – $10.8K
per month
→
24-mo forecast
$6.4K – $19.2K
per month
MID tier
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📊 Performance Tracking LIVE

1 snapshots on record
idle
0%
Rating
4.2
Reviews
332 reviews
Forecast Revenue / mo
$5.0K
Snapshots tracked
1
since Jun 2026
ONE-TIME · BUILD 💰 Estimated build cost
$230K
↳ What it cost to build · not monthly revenue
Likely range $170K – $310K
$25K · MVP floor $100K · indie scale $500K+ · studio build
📈 Pays back in ~3.8y at current MRR

Synthetic estimate. Inputs: category complexity, file size, screen count, monetization layer, platform reach, age × team-size proxy. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-agency rate surveys. Full math + source list on /methodology.

Where the money goes
🧱 MVP baseline (design + 1-store ship) +$28K
📱 5 unique screens × $4.5K +$22K
💎 In-app purchase plumbing +$9K
⚙ Adventure complexity ×2.10 +$65K
🌐 Cross-platform reach (iOS + Android) +$68K
⚙ 6.2y maintenance × ~1-person team +$37K
Total estimate $230K
ONE-TIME · EXIT VALUE 💵 Estimated acquisition value
$125K
↳ What it would sell for · not monthly revenue
Marketplace range $100K – $175K · 26× MRR multiple
💸 ~0.5× build cost (under-water)

Synthetic estimate. Multiple band derived from iap / freemium model + age, rating quality, category demand, and user-base maturity. Calibrated against 2024-2026 indie-app-marketplace closed-deal medians. Full math + comparable deal list on /methodology.

How the multiple was built
💎 IAP / freemium model base 28× MRR
📅 6.2y proven track record +20%
🏷 Adventure category multiple -15%
⭐ Small user base (<1K ratings) -8%
Final multiple 26× MRR
👥 Estimated audience size
32K
Lifetime downloads (US-equivalent)
Monthly active
2.9K
Daily active
870

Synthetic estimate from ratings × category benchmarks. Calibrated against 2024-2026 mobile-attribution retention + DAU/MAU reports. Numbers are US-storefront-equivalent — true global audience can be 5-10× larger for international apps. Full math + source list on /methodology.

How we sized it
📲 Adventure engagement ~140 installs / rating
📅 6.2y of rating accumulation -30%
🔁 Adventure D30 retention 12%
📍 DAU / MAU stickiness 0.30
DAU / MAU 30% sticky
🛠 Estimated tech stack
🤖
Native Android (Kotlin)
Medium confidence · 55%
Also possible
Flutter

Heuristic guess from app bundle size, category, store description signals, and release-date stack era. Bumetric does not disassemble binaries — for binary-level certainty you would need an SDK intelligence tool or the manifest itself. Reasoning chain on the right. Full ruleset on /methodology.

Signals we read
🏷 Category context Adventure
📦 Tiny game bundle → Native 2D engine
💀 Maintenance status
At risk
60%
Last shipped 2025-12-01 · 311 days ago
0 · Active 50 · At risk 100 · Abandoned

Heuristic risk score from time-since-last-update + ratings velocity proxy + Editor's Choice / curated featuring signals. Calibrated against 2024-2025 app-store ranking decay reports. Not a guarantee — a quiet app with a healthy codebase looks the same as an abandoned one until something breaks. Full math on /methodology.

Risk signals
📅 10 months since last update Concerning gap
👥 Small user base (332 ratings) + 6.2y old +10% (solo-project pattern)
Verdict At risk
🔬

How we forecast this revenue

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Baseline
$5.0K/mo · ML-estimated from 234 triggers
Growth rate
+4.0% MoM · MID tier baseline (compound monthly)
6 months
$4.7K – $7.9K
12 months
$5.2K – $10.8K
24 months
$6.4K – $19.2K
Compound growth at +4.0% MoM (tier baseline for MID). Range widens with horizon — typical noise band ±25% at 6mo.. Ranges widen with horizon — distant futures carry more uncertainty.
📊

BU Investment Matrix

Below median · 54/100MID TIERunderperforming peers
RevenueQualityMarketGrowthMoatSafetyFounderMonetiz.
Revenue Strength
3.7
Product Quality
5.9
Market Position
0.0
Growth Velocity
5.0
Defensibility
9.1
Operational Safety
9.0
Founder Strength
6.4
Monetization Maturity
4.0
  • 💰 Revenue: Modest — $3K - $7K/mo · MID tier · medium confidence, trajectory unclear.
  • ⭐ Quality: 4.24★ across 332 reviews — below category median.
  • 📍 Market: Not yet charting in any of the 9 monitored markets.
  • 📈 Growth: last update 311d ago — slow cadence.
  • ⚠️ Risk: Low — no material risk signals detected.
🎯 For competitors: Mixed picture. Worth competing if you have a clear UX or pricing edge — otherwise crowded segment.
💵 For acquirers: Estimated asking range 18-32× monthly = $90K-$160K. Portfolio play ($8K/mo combined) commands premium.
Composite of 8 dimensions computed deterministically from public signals — no LLM, every score traces back to a measurable input. Default weights shown; "compete" / "acquire" / "invest" lenses re-weight without re-fetching.
Range:

💰 Forecast Revenue / mo

MODEL
Revenue forecast computed from BU's 234 trigger model on each snapshot. Calibrated against ground-truth from 58 verified-revenue apps.
🔬Forecast Breakdown — Why This Estimate?Top 6 of 6 triggers
Our ML model uses 200+ signals from public data. These are the most influential for this app:
bugsREVIEW
−$1,800
support teamREVIEW
+$900
Good rating (4.2★)METRIC
+$800
Established app (6y old)METRIC
+$800
Ad-supported / freemiumMETRIC
+$600
Early-stage install base (332 ratings)METRIC
+$400
METRIC = structural app data · REVIEW = mined from user reviews · ✓ VERIFIED = Stripe-verified anchor (TrustMRR)

📈 Reviews Growth

LIVE
Cumulative review count from first BU snapshot. Each point = a tracked update.

⭐ Rating Trend

LIVE
Average rating evolution. Updates with each new review batch.

Profile & Insights

Everything we know — and don't — about this app and its company.

Identification

App name
Surface 12: Project Dawn
Developer
Elephant Games AR LLC
Bundle ID
com.elephantgames.surfprojdown
App Store URL
Open in App Store
Category
Adventure
Content rating
Not found
Languages
Not found

Company

Website
www.elephant-games.am
Tagline
Not found
Description
Not found
Founded
Not found
HQ / Address
Not found
Employees
Not found
Logo
Not found

Revenue

Reported revenue signal / mo
Not found
AI revenue estimate / mo
Not found
AI annual estimate
Not found
Model estimate / mo
$5.0K/mo
Top-grossing rank
Not found
All-time revenue
Not found
Pricing
$3.99 per item

Founder

Founder data not yet collected for this app.

Funding

Funding data not yet collected for this app.

Press & Links

Press & Links data not yet collected for this app.

Contacts & Socials

Contacts & Socials data not yet collected for this app.
Profile is built from iTunes Lookup + developer site scrape + ML revenue model. Empty fields show "Not found" — additional sources (Crunchbase, X, IndieHackers, Acquire.com) coming.

📝 About this app

While driving to a new home you get in car accident. When you wake up, you find yourself near small town that looks abandoned and your daughter is nowhere to be seen. Did she run away or did someone took her? Test your strength and trust only what you can see while facing dangers on a way to finding your daughter. Will you uncover the secrets behind mysterious Project Dawn and learn town's fate or will you lose yourself to fear?
HELP HEROINE SOLVE THE MYSTERY OF AN ABANDONED TOWN
When your daughter disappears near a mysterious abandoned town, it is your job to find her.… View full description on the official store →
App Specs
🔐 Own this app? Claim & verify MRR →
🔖 v1.1.1.25🔄 updated 10mo ago📂 Adventure💰 Free💎 IAP $3.99 per item🚀 Launched 2020 (6y old)
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📝 Description

95
BU Score · Transcendent
Full revenue analysis
Read the article-style breakdown for Surface 12: Project Dawn: category rank, percentile, growth signal, comparable apps, and how the forecast is calibrated against verified-MRR anchors in this niche.
Read deep-dive →

More by Elephant Games AR LLC

View all →
📦 Portfolio summaryMID studio
53apps·$265K/mocombined
✓ Diversified — top app contributes 2%; risk spread across portfolio

Similar apps in Adventure

About this analysis
ZCAnalyzed by Zakhar Chumak · founder, Bumetric·Full methodology·Medium confidence

Why medium confidence: 332 ratings · no founder-verified revenue (model estimate only).

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

10 answers · auto-generated from this app's public data
How much does Surface 12 make per month?▴
Based on our ML-calibrated revenue forecast, Surface 12 earns approximately $5.0K/mo. This is a US-storefront-equivalent estimate; global revenue can be several times larger for internationally-distributed apps. See the methodology page for the full formula and confidence bands.
Is Surface 12 profitable?▴
With estimated build cost $230K and monthly revenue $5.0K, Surface 12 looks slow ROI — payback period is around 3.8 years at the current run-rate. Profitability also depends on paid-acquisition spend and refund rate which the public model doesn't see.
How many users does Surface 12 have?▴
Estimated audience: ~32K lifetime downloads, ~2K monthly active users, and ~870 daily active users. Derived from ratings count × category installs-per-rating × age decay. US-storefront-equivalent — global audience can be 5-10× larger for internationally-distributed apps.
What apps are like Surface 12?▴
Browse the full Adventure category catalog to find similar apps with revenue, build cost, audience and tech stack data. Each /p/{slug} page also shows a Compare side-by-side widget with three peer apps from the same niche.
What is Surface 12 built with?▴
Our heuristic places Surface 12 on the Native Android (Kotlin) stack (Medium confidence, 55%). Signals: app bundle size, category context, store-description markers, release-date era. We don't disassemble binaries. Alternative possibilities: Flutter.
Is Surface 12 still actively maintained?▴
Maintenance status: At risk (60% abandonment risk). Last shipped version was 10 months ago. The risk score combines time-since-last-update with Editor's Choice / curated featuring + user-base maturity adjustments.
How much would Surface 12 sell for?▴
Estimated acquisition value: $125K (marketplace range $100K – $175K). Calculated as 26× monthly revenue using the standard multiple for the detected monetization model + adjustments for age, rating quality and category demand. Calibrated against 2024-2026 Flippa / Acquire.com / MicroAcquire closed-deal medians.
When was Surface 12 last updated?▴
Surface 12 last shipped a new version on 2025-12-01 — 10 months ago. This is the date Apple / Google last accepted a new build, not a content-only push.
Who makes Surface 12?▴
Surface 12 is published by Elephant Games AR LLC on the Google Play Store. See the full publisher portfolio (other apps by the same developer) via the More by developer block on the product page above.
What is Surface 12's BU Score?▴
Surface 12 has a BU Score of 55/100 (Solid). The score combines App Store rating, ratings count, monetization model and revenue signals calibrated against founder-verified MRR anchors. See the BU Score formula.